Is Secularization Responsible for Lower Birth Rates?

Birth rates have fallen significantly in Western Europe and many countries will soon have shrinking populations. Secularization is often blamed for this worrying phenomenon. Here are quotes from some articles that make this claim:

Religion takes a back seat in Western Europe

Among the most striking consequences of the decline of religion has been fewer children. The birth rate throughout much of Western Europe has fallen so drastically that the population in many countries is shrinking, indicating that women throughout Europe now routinely use artificial birth control, in defiance of the Roman Catholic Church's teachings. ¹

U.S. Fertility Rate Hits 35-Year High, Stabilizing Population

For the first time in 35 years, the U.S. fertility rate has climbed high enough to sustain a stable population, solidifying the nation's unique status among industrialized countries. Experts…cite a complex mix of factors, including lower levels of birth control use …widely held religious values that encourage childbearing, social conditions that make it easier for women to work and have families, and a growing Hispanic population. ²

Faith Equals Fertility

If they want to spread their gospel, then, one might half-seriously conclude that atheists and agnostics ought to focus on having more children, to help overcome their demographic disadvantage. Unfortunately for secularists, this may not work even as a joke. Nobody knows exactly why religion and fertility tend to go together. ³

But is secularization really to blame? I did the comparison below to see if there is a correlation between religiosity and birth rates. I chose several countries that have a low rate of belief in the Judeo-Christian God and high atheism rates and compared them to some countries that have a high rate of belief in the Judeo Christian God and low rates of atheism. I did not include Britain or Spain because they have both high church attendance and high rates of atheism or belief in a spirit or life force rather than the Judeo-Christian God.

While all of these countries have birth rates below replacement rate (2.1%), there is no correlation between high rates of atheism or nontraditional beliefs and low birth rates. The more religious countries actually have lower birth rates with Ireland being the exception. The lowest birth rate for the secular countries is 1.67 for Sweden. All the religious countries (other than Ireland) have lower birth rates than this.

I also checked the statistics for Poland, which is in Eastern Europe. Its church attendance rate is 63% and atheism rate is 1% but its birth rate is 1.29, which is by far the worst of all the countries I looked at. I did not include Germany because I could not find statistics for it in the Eurobarometer 2005 survey that I used. I wanted to get all the statistics from the same source. Germany is a very secular country with a very low birth rate of 1.42.

According to the Pew Forum's Distribution of Children at Home for Religious Traditions (in the United States), ⁴ there is not much difference in the number of children that the religious and the unaffiliated have. Muslims and Mormons are the exception. Evangelical Christians and the Unaffiliated in the U.S. have almost identical numbers of children.

Atheists, Agnostics and the Secular Unaffiliated in the U.S. have lower birth rates. Approximately 75% of atheists are childless compared to 65% of evangelicals. But due to a big increase in atheism in just the last decade or so, a large number of nonbelievers are under the age of 30. So, many have not entered their child raising years yet. American men are twice as likely to be atheists than American women, which may depress marriage and childbearing rates as well.

The following are the statistics that include church attendance rates, rates of belief in the Judeo-Christian God and birth rates.

I chose 25% as a minimum for countries to be listed in the high church attendance group. These numbers are for weekly attendance. The numbers are a little higher when you include people who attend church irregularly. 

The first number is the atheism rate. The number in parenthesis is the percentage that believes in a spirit or life force, rather than the traditional Judeo-Christian God.

Here are some birth rates. Again, the most secular countries have the highest birth rates, with Ireland as the one exception.

From these statistics, it doesn’t make sense to blame a decline in religion for low birth rates. Economic issues, work-life balance and career decisions are most likely the main culprits. Birth rates have actually been increasing in France due to more family friendly government policies. Birth rates are only slightly higher for immigrants, so it is not a case of immigrants driving up the birth rate.

The government trumpeted the figures as a victory for family-friendly policies such as cheap day care and generous parental leave...Among its pro-family measures, the French government offers euro750 (US$970) a month to parents who take one year's unpaid leave from work after the birth of a third child. Large families also get shopping discounts and reduced fares on public transport. French fathers are also guaranteed paid paternity leave. ⁵

It is true that some religious groups, such as Mormons and Orthodox Jews, have large families. But overall, there doesn't seem to be a lot of difference in the childbearing rates of the religious and secular. The following is given as an explanation for Italy’s low birth rate:

Letizia Mencarini, a professor of statistics at the University of Florence, questioned more than 3 000 mothers from five different cities across Italy in an effort to find out what would persuade them to have more children.

She found that the more the father was involved in the chores of looking after the child and household, the more likely his wife was to want and have a second baby. The survey indicated that Italian men do little around the house - fewer than six per cent of mothers responded that their husbands "always" or "often" did household chores . Consequently many women cannot face the dual burden of going out to work and looking after an extra child. They have to give up one of those two options: they usually decide to sacrifice the extra child.

There is evidence from other countries that men's participation in household chores affects the chances that a wife will have a second baby. Sweden’s birth rate is nearly 50 per cent higher than Italy's. ⁶

^{1. http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-08-10-europe-religion-cover_x.htm}

^{2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/20/AR2007122002725.html}

^{3. http://moreintelligentlife.com/story/faith-equals-fertility#}

^{4. http://religions.pewforum.org/pdf/report-religious-landscape-study-full.pdf}

^{5 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/16/AR2007011600720_pf.html}

^{6. http://www.doki.net/tarsasag/novedelem/upload/novedelem/document/birth_rate_in_Italy.htm}

Atheism Rates:
^{http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_225_report_en.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_atheism}

Church Attendance Rates:
^{http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_attendance}

Birth Rates:
^{https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html}